Betting on Football means you had better be ready for the Marathon. First of all, the football season is a long one. It is not difficult to make a decent amount of money if you are around until the Super Bowl in January. But so many times in the past we have seen bettors get too eager right off the bat, and they end up blowing their bankroll before the meat of the schedule comes around. We have said this before, and we will probably say it again next season, so there is no real need for elaboration.
Second, and more specific, make sure what you are looking at is really what you think it is. Anyone who has been in a Las Vegas show room watching female impersonators knows how convincing they can look and sound- BUT WHAT YOU SEE IS NOT ALWAYS WHAT YOU GET! We have a similar aspect in sports handicapping, the desire to want to wrap one's self up in a blanket of trends. We can call it "Trendsvesticism", and its practitioners "Trendsvestites."
Now we will be the first to admit that using trends, sometimes, is among the most important aspects of our handicapping. But when we use them they have been painstakingly thought out (usually the pain coming from squinting eyes), and we like to feel that they have meaning. Many do not do, however, and be careful that you do not get caught into their trap.
There are more pre-season football publications being put out each year than ever before, with the increase being largely do to new offerings from members of the sports handicapping community. Many of these are filled with what we call "forced trends" - that is, when they do their team-by-team previews they will list two or three so-called pertinent trends for each team. Sometimes they are solid trends with substance, sometimes they are not; my point is that they are going to list the same number for each team regardless.
What this forces you to do is go through a discernment process, and those that are successful in this endeavor are those that are capable of finding valid trends with substance. You must decide first whether or not the concept is valid. In other words, does it make sense- is there a logical progression of events involved.
After recognizing whether there was a logical base to start with, you then must ask yourself why the trend should continue. If the logic holds up, keep going. If there has been a change of sort, think long and hard. And sometimes when the change has been significant enough, you can go against a long-term trend without batting an eyelash.
So check for logic, look for substance. And even if logic is there, make sure that there is a valid reason why it should continue. Coaching changes and personnel changes alter the character of any football team, and once that character has been altered anything that happened in the past is of little consequence.
You can almost parallel this to looking up the skirt of a possible Transvestite. It may require some work, and perhaps cause some embarrassment, but in the end, at least you know what you are getting.
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Joe Atkins of Inside Information on www.sportsanalyst.com
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