You don't win by mistake... No team or individual can win all the time. The True Professionals who are the most consistent winners are the type of people who commit themselves to the game,who do their homework each day, and are the types not afraid to spend long hours and make sacrifices in perfecting their skills. I want to help instill confidence and the will to win, despite tremendous odds, in you.
Professional gamblers possess three positive assets: Knowledge, Skill, and Patience...
To be a successful sports investor, you must have all three. I want to Dazzle you with Winners not Bullshit! This game can be won over the long run--You have to be ready for the marathon--not the 100 meter dash.
I live on two basic principles for success, DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE.
Remember that "Aptitude, Education and Advantage get one started; Discipline, Patience,and Attitude determine how far one goes".
Most people who bet regularly on sporting events know nothing more about sports than what they read in the daily newspaper or see or television.
People most of time amaze me... I have intelligent, successful clients, many of whom own their own businesses or have enormous profit-centered responsibilities. They make correct and profitable business decisions daily with great care, patience and planning.
Yet, these same people bet, sometimes massively and sometimes in excess, on a football game because they FEEL one side has a better chance of winning than the other.
If one of their employees suggested spending company money on something because "they feel it would work", They would go totally BALLISTIC "Don't give me feelings. Give me Facts, give me trends, show me the Plan."
Yet, these same people will bet thousands on a football or basketball game with no facts, no trends, no game plan. Nothing but a gut feeling...
Sometimes they just want a release. I WANT TO WIN EVERY GAME.
Philosophy of Success--Part 2
New Definition of Winning...
The next time that you decide that you want to bet on a sporting event or enjoy some time at a casino, why don't you consider a new definition for Winning and Losing.
Winning is being Successful; Losing is failing...
If you win, you succeed; if you lose, you failed... Learn how to accept a loss, but, don't expect to lose.
Every weekend, hundred of thousands of players bet on football games or make their pilgrimage to Las Vegas, or other areas of the country for a "little" gambling, with the pretense of only losing small amounts of money. The casinos have turned on their magnet for most weekend gamblers who simply like to play.
Interesting Stat... Believe this Statistic... Over 95% of all the players are not skilled, Have no serious plan to win, and honestly anticipate a loss.
Not surprisingly, they go home a loser. You must have preparation for winning. Change your Mindset and become a Winner. Become a student and learn your craft.
IN SPORTS BETTING YOU MUST HAVE THE ABILITY TO RECOGNIZE AN OPPORTUNITY, AND HAVE THE WISDOM TO KNOW THAT YOU CAN'T FORCE IT TO HAPPEN. IN THE REAL WORLD, YOU CAN MAKE YOUR OPPORTUNITIES...
IN SPORTS BETTING, YOU ARE ALWAYS SEARCHING FOR VALUE AND YOU MUST BE PATIENT WAITING FOR THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITIES.
I have heard that patience is a great virtue to possess and incorporating patience into one's arsenal allows you to recognize value plays over the course of a long and grinding season.
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The other side of the counter... Football is football, right?
Not if you're a bookmaker. They'll tell you booking college and NFL can be quite different. With college football starting Saturday, it's time to explore these differences.
Perhaps the biggest difference is the clientele.
"You get a lot more public, average-Joe, novice money on the pro teams," said Dave Malinsky, race and sports book director at several overseas sports books. "Whereas in the college game, you have more wise guy money and this wise guy money dominates on Saturday."
Professional bettors, who bookmakers call wise guys, have edges betting college football, especially early in the season when team evaluations are harder to get a handle on. There are more than 115 college board teams, compared to 32 NFL teams.
SHARP BETTORS ARE ABLE TO PUT more time in studying and gathering updated information than the bookmaker and oddsmaker, who have other duties and must make lines on other sports.
This can pay off for the wise guy when he takes advantage of late-breaking injury reports or suspensions.
Malinsky said his places comes out ahead in college football, but their hold isn't as large as it is in the NFL.
"The percentages aren't as big as the pros because we get more parlay action on the pros," Malinsky said. "The novice bettors are all playing parlays."
College bettors seem to be more objective. The majority who bet the NFL play parlays and like to wager on favorites. Knowing this, bookmakers sometimes will use numbers on parlay cards that are slightly different than what the betting line is on the board.
FOR INSTANCE, IF THE ST LOUIS RAMS are favored by 7 in a Monday night game, bookmakers know the public is going to wager on St Louis. So they'll use the Rams minus 7 1/2 on their parlay cards.
The bookmaker would be hesitant, though, to move the betting number from 7 to 7 1/2 on the board unless he received enough Ram bets to justify it, because wise guys are always on the prowl for perceived value.
Because more money comes in on the NFL, bookmakers usually move the betting line a half-point whenever they change the number. In college, bookmakers will move the line a whole point at a time in order to slow steam bets, in which wise guys keeping betting a team until they believe there's no value left.
To protect themselves, bookmakers take lower limits on college games in Vegas. Malinsky said there's another reason, too.
"In Vegas, they have lower limits in college because they get fewer big bets on college from a house guest than we would from a house guest on the pros," he said.
THERE ARE, OF COURSE, MARQUEE COLLEGE matchups when public money exceeds wise guy action.
"You do have your public teams, which we book a little differently than let's say your Iowa-Iowa State game," Malinsky said. In other words, the bookmaker would be more aggressive moving the line on the Iowa-Iowa State game than he would on a Florida-Florida State game, even if he took the same large bet from a wise guy. Key numbers such as 3, 4 and 7 aren't as important to the bookmaker in college as they are in the pros.
In the NFL, bookmakers hate to get off 3 because they can get middled or sided since 3 is one of the most common victory margin in the pros.
That's why if they continue to draw one-way action, they'll make the bettor lay higher juice before getting off the 3.
For example, if the Dallas Cowboys are 3-point favorites against the Washington Redskins and the majority of the money comes in on Dallas, the bookmaker probably will first make Dallas bettors lay minus-$1.20 instead of the normal minus-$1.10 vigorish on a straight bet.
ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCE HAS BEEN CUT by the pros adopting the two-point conversion rule, key numbers don't fall as often in the colleges as they do in the pros.
"The key number 3 isn't as big in college as it is in the pros, so we tend to move it off and on the 3 with less hesitation that we do in the pros," Malinsky said.
This could be reflected in the wide range of talent bases and styles amongst the multitude of college teams.
In the NFL, there are a few elite teams and a few bottom teams. Everybody else is in the middle. So you rarely see a point spread in double-digits. In the colleges, you can see huge point spreads.
Last year, for example, Nebraska was favored by 30 or more points five times. The point spread in the NFL is large by reaching double-digits depth.
THE TOUGHEST LINE TO MAKE AND BOOK is college totals.
"They (the wise guys) do very well, and that's why most don't put up college totals until later in the week -- and we limit those plays lower than the sides," Malinsky said. Once on the board, it's not uncommon to see bookmakers rapidly move college totals. "Totals can run quite a bit," Malinsky said. "They can run 4, 5, 6 points. You really have to keep your eye on them.
"If we can just be in the black on totals in college for the year, that would be an accomplishment."
Joe Atkins of Inside Information on www.sportsanalyst.com
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